The other day I was contemplating the "cry wolf" effect upon those who have been warning of pending environmental danger since the 1970's. They have been accused of "crying wolf" way to often and too far in advance. The population and politicians stopped listening to the wolf-criers because it looked as if the doomsday scenarios didn't play out. It seems like the Eco-wackoes did us all a diservice.

Or did they? I read a recent survey online at the appropriately titled www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk which discussed the myth about whether Global Peak Oil concerns were exaggerated in the 1970's (after M King Hubbert's projection of US Depletion came true). The author found that those who were precicting Peak Oil in the 70's predicted a year for Global Peak somewhere between 1995 and 2005. The actual Peak could have been as early as 2000 it might come as late as 2010 (we'll only know after the event). Wow, ONLY five years out! In geological terms this is a tiny pinprick in time. So it seems that nobody was crying 'wolf' about Peak Oil in the 70's but there is a public perception that this is what happened. Nobody cried wolf at all. The projections were actually pretty good!

The same seems to be true about "The Limits of Growth" which has been much derided since published by the Club of Rome in 1972. The public and political perception is that they predicted the end of the World by 1980. They definitely did not! They actually predicted that mankind's footprint upon the planet would no longer be sustainable after 1980. And they were correct. Their Forecasts of the resulting overshoot were also spot on even if their suggestion about the resulting crash may have been a few years too early.

The truth is that the great and good have been predicting the TRUTH for thirty or forty years but nobody WANTS to believe them. It isn't effecting us HERE and NOW so obviously all this environmentalists must be crying wolf. THIS IS AN EXCUSE. The truth is that nobody has really listened to these TRUTHFUL warnings. For that is what they were.

These Visionaries should be given the honours they deserve. All they did was this: they looked to the future and did NOT assume that everything would get better. They guessed there would be limits. Well, it wasn't guesswork, all the scientific evidence was there for everyone to see. We should give credit where credit is due.

I see it like this: they got themselves a telescope and they cast it around to see what they could see. In the distance they saw a pack of wolves. Some wolves were closer than others but they were getting closer. The funny thing was that THEY were NOT heading towards US. No, WE were running as quickly as possible towards the Wolves. So the men with the telescopes shouted "WOLF!" and everyone laughed at them. "There are no Wolves!" said the men without Telescopes (for they could only see inside the room they were in). So the men with Telescopes were ignored. People laughed and jeered....

Thirty years passed. We ran and ran and ran. Those wolves were still there. Lots of them. Some closer than others. There were two particularly big and nasty Wolves at the front. One was Climate Change and the other was Peak Oil. Behind them were the lesser Wolves of Top Soil Loss and Biodiversity loss. Behind them a litany of more. All equally dangerous and especially so if they all worked together as a pack... So, we finally reached the first and second wolf. They are at the door if not in the room with us. The men with Telescopes don't need Telescopes anymore. They can see the Wolf. They can smell it. Lots of people can now smell the Wolves. I can hear them scratching at the door..... Now we all jump up and down a cry "WOLF!"

But who is left to listen to us?